Unless something more changes than the condition of Kevin Garnett's knee during the sooner-than-expected offseason that began yesterday, the Celtics might have gained a glimpse of the future the past few weeks, and it is not encouraging.
With Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen intact and healthy, the Celtics remained one of the NBA's best teams this year. But once Garnett went down, they were worn down and finally worn out, forced to play seven games and an equal number of overtime periods to be rid of the Chicago Bulls before being beaten into submission in their own living room Sunday by the upstart Orlando Magic. Truth be told, the Celtics never were in that game and were far closer to being eliminated in five by a younger, healthier Magic team than they were of eliminating the Magic in six. The latter nearly happened and would have been a great accomplishment considering the depleted nature of the Celtics roster, but they blew a five-point lead in the fourth quarter to force a Game 7, and as things turned out that game was a continuation of the end of Game 6 and their season.
From the moment Garnett went down with a knee injury everyone keeps saying is not serious yet sidelined him for the rest of the year, the Celtics were playing on borrowed time. So now the postmortems begin and chief among them is that team president Danny Ainge gambled and lost when he chose to be pennywise and pound foolish by declining to bring James Posey back because he didn't want to be stuck with a fourth year on his new contract.
From a business standpoint, it made perfect sense, but Ainge seemed to be relying on ill-conceived hopes that Patrick O'Bryant and Tony Allen would give Doc Rivers more than a headache this season. Neither did and once Garnett went down without being touched (which at his age is often a warning of things to come) the Celtics' matchup problems multiplied.
When that was followed by the loss of unlucky Leon Powe to his third knee operation by the age of 25, storm clouds began to mass and soon the Magic rained on the defending NBA champion's parade plans. Where the Celtics go from here is up to Ainge and ownership, but if they think they can stand pat and rely solely on Garnett returning to full health they are deluding themselves. They need only consult Celtics history to understand that.
The original Big Three - Larry Bird, Kevin McHale and Robert Parish - began to fall apart at about the same ages and number of years in the NBA as Garnett, Allen and Pierce now face.
The New Big Three may have an effective year or two left. Certainly when healthy they played well enough for them to rightly believe a repeat of last year's championship was doable. But it didn't happen because Garnett jumped in the air, landed and his knee fell apart without being touched. Fair warning.
With Garnett absent, the Celts defense allowed more than 102 points a game in the postseason, one in which both Allen and Pierce looked their ages. Allen struggled to get open and it was not exactly Ron Artest checking him. It was J.J. Redick, about whom it was believed defense would be his undoing in the NBA.
Pierce conceded he and his teammates simply ran out of gas.
For long-term planning, Ainge may have been right in letting Posey walk, but the fact is he built a team for the short term not the long haul. The worry should have been about this year, and perhaps next, because if the new edition of the Big Three is going to produce multiple championships it has to be immediately.
Now this year is gone and one has to wonder how much longer three guys with a combined 41 years of NBA wear-and-tear can hold up. History, including Celtics history, says not much longer. You can bet against history and medical statistics if you want, but that's not how insurance companies make huge profits. They don't bet against the actuarial tables. Danny Ainge best not either.
- rborges@bostonherald.com
